By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst The facts that will surface in upcoming earnings calls * AI adoption stalled nearly a year ago. * Current capex follows a classic hype-cycle pattern * More than 95% of AI users do not pay. * 95% of AI-for-business deployments fail. * Even market leaders
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst CNBC says Google’s AI story is strengthening, citing Gemini 3 as the proof point. If that were true, some adoption signal should be visible after Gemini 3’s mid-November rollout. What the data shows instead * No app adoption inflection AppFigures data
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst Most readers only give me five seconds. But do us both a favor and give me 10. In August, an MIT report landed on an uncomfortable number: 95% of AI-for-business initiatives fail to deliver meaningful impact. Billions are being spent. Pilots
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst Costco sells millions of rotisserie chickens every year — at a loss. Scale doesn’t recover the cost – and it was never meant to – because the chicken is a loss leader subsidized by everything else in the cart. But LLMs can’t sell inference
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst That’s right. I said it. We can reduce AI capex by 90%. Before I tell you how, let me explain why this matters — because the importance is both multi-faceted and not immediately obvious. In the meantime, know this: The problem isn’
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst These charts show no significant growth from left edge to right edge: Web traffic, August - October 2025 Web traffic, December 2025 App downloads November 26-December 27, 2025 App downloads 2025 Month-over-month, November–December 2025 Every LLM is in the red
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst According to reporting by The Information, Satya Nadella noted that Microsoft programs for connecting Copilot with Gmail and Outlook “for the most part don’t really work” and are “not smart.” Furthermore, Nadella has told colleagues that Office 365 isn’t delivering on
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst JK. But this outcome is inevitable – it happens when a sector built on narrative collides with accounting reality. We have seen this movie before When a market offers little durable differentiation and competes primarily on price, two things happen at once: * margins collapse
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst OpenAI is about to play follow the leader…over a cliff. The leader is Google. The cliff is trust. By embedding Google’s Gemini directly into the Chrome browser, Google bet that exposure will fix AI’s stalled adoption. That if Gemini 3
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst Can LLMs “scale” their way to profitability by charging a flat rate of $20/month for unlimited compute? * If every man, woman and child in America pays $20/month = $81.6B/year * Capex depreciation: $50B/year * Staff: $11.25B/year * Cost of electricity
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst Adobe 10-Q, Q3 FY2025: “…there can be no assurance that our new or enhanced products and AI innovations will be successful, adopted or monetizable…” Intuit 10-Q, quarter ended Oct 31, 2025: “…such endeavors may involve significant risks and uncertainties… expenses associated
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst Once upon a time, there were three queries: * One query was very complicated * One query was just so-so * And one query was duck-soup simple But all three queries got the same amount of compute at the same cost – barely makes sense,