Why AI chipmakers are up, but LLMs are not 5 days in a row

NASDAQ up, Chipmakers up, LLM-tied names mixed or down. The explainer:

This is not a selloff.
It’s a separation.

Why chipmakers are up

• They sell capacity, not outcomes
• Revenue tied to approved capex
• Near-term visibility
• Paid before value is proven

Shovels get paid during the gold rush.

Why LLMs are not

• Adoption has flattened
• Inference costs rise with usage
• Pricing guesses at value instead of measuring it
• Margins do not improve with scale

More use = more cost.
That’s the problem.

Why the narrative hasn’t changed

• Media still says “AI”
• NVDA props up the story
• Language lags prices

Institutions already model the split.

What history says

• Railroads vs railroad operators
• Broadband pipes vs dot-coms

Infrastructure holds first.
Applications get repriced later.

What the market is saying

• Some AI makes money today
• Some does not

That’s not opinion.
That’s arithmetic.