We have reached Peak AI

For two years, the world has been told a single story: AI is on an unstoppable upward trajectory. Exponential growth. Infinite adoption. A future that only goes “up and to the right.”

But there is a second story hiding in plain sight — one that every major tech publication, every analyst desk, and every AI vendor seems to have missed.

The story is written directly into the charts they publish.

It is the Hype Cycle.

And the Hype Cycle — Gartner’s signature model, copied endlessly across the industry — shows the same unmistakable shape every time:

A steep rise.
A dramatic collapse.
A long, slow recovery.

And here is the part no one has said aloud:

The industry never returns to its peak.

Not for AI, not for crypto, not for augmented reality, not for robotics, not for any technology mapped across the Hype Cycle.

The “Peak of Inflated Expectations” is always a high-water mark.

In every chart, across every domain, the peak is a point of maximum belief, not maximum value.It is the precise moment when expectations outrun reality — and gravity takes over.

Data from Similarweb and Appfigures show that AI growth has stalled. If true, MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, NVDA, MU, ORCL may be mispriced by billions

The pattern is universal

It doesn’t matter which version of the chart you look at:

The corporate explainer from Sedai
The pragmatic trend list on Medium
Scott Brinker’s marketing analysis on chiefmartec
SmartBrief’s 2025 “hype normalization” review
Kongsberg’s warning about being “blinded by the hype”
And of course, Gartner’s own 2024 AI Hype Cycle — the source everyone copies

They all show the same contour:

Innovation Trigger — the spark
Peak of Inflated Expectations — the frenzy
Trough of Disillusionment — the crash
Slope of Enlightenment — the slow rebuild
Plateau of Productivity — the mature phase

Look closely at any of these charts:

The slope upward is fast and euphoric.
The fall is violent.
The climb back is gradual.

And critically: the recovery never reaches the height of the peak.

The peak is a bubble.
The plateau is a business.

Why this matters right now

AI is not immune.
AI is not special.
AI is not exempt from the physics of hype.

If anything, AI has amplified the pattern:

Record valuations
Record expectations
Record marketing
Record displacement fears
Record speculation

And now we are watching the same shape emerge in real time — not just in Gartner charts, but in actual usage data:

Web traffic flat from August through October
App downloads stalling
Consumer engagement softening
Analysts quietly walking back their 2023–2024 hyperbole

The signals match the curve.
The curve matches the peak.
And the peak matches the moment we are in.

We are not entering the Peak

We are leaving it.

The drop has begun — not a collapse of capability, but a collapse of expectations. And this is exactly what every historical Hype Cycle predicts.

After the peak comes the reckoning.

The path forward

If the pattern holds — and for thirty years it always has — AI now enters:

The Trough of Disillusionment.
Where the gap between promise and delivery becomes impossible to ignore.

After that comes:

The Slope of Enlightenment.
Where real products with real value survive.

And finally:

The Plateau of Productivity.
Where AI becomes infrastructure — useful, stable, unglamorous.

This is not doom.
This is normalization.
This is what maturity looks like.

But the peak?

We have already passed it.

And the industry must now confront what the charts have been saying all along:

Peak AI was never the destination.
It was the warning sign.