By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst Wall Street is pricing AI upside. It is not pricing AI risk. It is betting on AI… * Before it proves it can tell the truth * Before it proves it can admit uncertainty * Before it proves it can pay for itself * Before it proves
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst It’s Friday night. You have friends over. You’re too tired to cook. Everyone’s hungry. They’re getting cranky. Solution? Pizza. Everyone chips in five bucks. Sounds fair — until one person eats half the pie. That’s how you’re pricing
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst The Wall Street Journal called the bubble on December 12. Jim Cramer followed two days later. Why? Because AI capex is exploding without commensurate revenue — and without a viable revenue model to support it. For example, Oracle dropped more than 11% on Thursday,
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst First, AI must make dollars and sense in two ways: Before AI can be trusted, governed or widely adopted, it has to work as a business. Today it doesn’t. The economics are broken on both sides of the ledger: revenue is mispriced
Over the past 21 days, traffic across major LLM platforms has moved in one unmistakable direction: * ChatGPT fell from 220.3 million daily visits to 212.6 million. * Claude declined. * Perplexity slipped. Three of the four leading platforms are drifting downward at the exact same time — a signal, not a
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst For two years, the world has been told a single story: AI is on an unstoppable upward trajectory. Exponential growth. Infinite adoption. A future that only goes “up and to the right.” But there is a second story hiding in plain sight — one
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst The mainstream narrative says AI adoption is exploding. But two independent datasets—Similarweb for web traffic and Appfigures for mobile app downloads—show a different pattern. Across four months of data, from early August through late November, both web usage and mobile installs
Amazon The world’s most efficient operator is torching its own compute budget. Why? Because nobody ever built a provisioning layer. So Amazon runs giant models at full blast — even when a smaller model could do the job. Ninety percent of those FLOPs? Wasted. This isn’t optimization. It’s
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst Every major AI platform is flat or declining this week — except one. And the exception tells us more about Google’s distribution muscle than it does about the health of the AI ecosystem. We track standalone traffic at gemini.google.com – not YouTube.
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst On Dec. 1, I posted my first story about demand for AI going flat across all observed LLMs on both web and apps — including, but not limited to, ChatGPT, Claude (Anthropic), Llama (Meta), and Perplexity. But at that time, my dataset only went
By Alan Jacobson, Systems Architect & Analyst Enron wiped out $74 billion. Anthropic may do five times that — not from fraud, but from narrative collapse. Anthropic’s valuation tells one story. The capital tells another. CNBC reported an implied valuation of roughly $350 billion in November, yet publicly disclosed investments
Dear Jeff, You’ve never been afraid to spend aggressively when the economics justify it. But even a 19th-century railroad baron would have balked at the way AI compute is being provisioned today. Amazon was built on a simple idea: anything that scales must get cheaper. WTF: 6 AI giants,